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WEEKLY POLL UPDATES

October 19, 2020

As we head into one of our final polling briefs, we continue to see positive standings and momentum for the Biden campaign, and while cautious, remain optimistic about the current state of the race. While some states have seen slight decreases in Biden’s lead over the last week, this is likely due to two factors. First, a particularly strong polling outcome last week caused a bit of a “spike” in Biden’s lead, and polling numbers are now subsequently undergoing reversion to the mean (although this mean will likely be higher than it was multiple weeks ago). Second, a gap in quality state-level polling has left little for any polling models to analyze. As such, we expect to see numbers generally stabilizing soon.

 

Our Midwestern and Rust Belt swing states have stayed fairly consistent in their leads for Biden through this week: Wisconsin and Michigan are both within 0.2 points of their October 11th polls and currently give Biden 7.4 and 7.9-point leads, respectively. Pennsylvania, even more likely to be a “tipping-point state” in this election, showed just a slight settling to a 6.7-point lead for Biden, still a generally comfortable margin (but indicative of the need for continued focus there). While Ohio has dropped slightly in the polls to just barely favor Trump, enhanced focus there can help secure a win.

 

Arizona, Florida, and North Carolina remain key swing states with rather tight margins—Biden is holding relatively steady polls there, and is up 3.8, 3.9, and 3.2 points respectively, yet any growth of these margins is additional certainty for the campaign. While North Carolina is currently handing Biden his strongest lead yet since we began tracking polls, Arizona and Florida both remain generally consistent with where they’ve been holding throughout the last two months, and could prove vital in cementing a Biden win. Enhanced focus on these two states should remain a priority, as wins there could very easily decide the election for Biden.

 

The race remains incredibly close in Georgia and Texas, with Biden up 1.3 points in the former and down 1.4 points in the latter. While neither of these states is inherently necessary to a Biden win, wins in Georgia and Texas would virtually erase any question of a close or disputed election, and would decisively end the Trump administration. In these states, well known for voter suppression and low Democratic turnout, emphasizing simply voting (and voting early or by mail if necessary) could be the deciding factor.

 

While the race remains steadily favoring Biden in the popular vote, an electoral college win still presents slightly more difficulty. We remain confident in our ability to close out the last two weeks of this campaign, and we hope to wake up on November 4th, having taken the first few steps to heal our nation.

 

All poll figures credited to FiveThirtyEight.

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Rebekah Rollston, MD, MPH, Founder 

HOW YOU CAN HELP:

We need as many healthcare workers as possible to make very short videos of themselves reading the attached script into a camera or alternatively saying something along the same lines. Creativity is fine, but we don't want to deviate super far from the script provided. If the speaker is from or in a swing state, they should ideally say that and which one. Even if they are not from a swing state, if anyone is from a red state it might be beneficial to call that out in the video. The audience is eligible voters who care about lowering prescription drug costs, listening to health experts, protecting Medicaid/Medicare, and healthcare as a right not a privilege.

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HEALTHCARE UNITED

Healthcare United is a paid-media campaign aiming to mobilize healthcare workers and healthcare-inclined voters to volunteer, engage, and vote in national and down-ballot elections in November. In the wake of COVID-19 and widespread Republican mismanagement of the crisis, Healthcare United is working to identify and engage healthcare workers and invite them to share their stories of the pandemic and working in the healthcare system generally. In doing so, we hope to capture voters in the Health Care Voter/Protect Our Care universe who prioritize affordable and accessible health care, but who may require additional persuasion to vote for Democratic candidates this election. By highlighting health care policy and Trump’s handling of COVID-19, we can increase engagement among healthcare-minded voters.

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